Along with billions of other people, I recently watched what can only be called a Jonah moment, during which brief period a Chilean kayaker was swallowed by a humpback whale. Fortunately, the giant beast realised his mistake and regurgitated the kayaker a few seconds later. Scientists have assured a curious public that the kayaker could never have been swallowed, as such whales have quite small throats. But now I wonder if the leaders of the European Union can feel as confident about survival after Europe has been, in a sense, gobbled up by Messrs Trump and Vance.
The European Union, which I have always regarded as being a noble ideal, got its start in the 1950s, when, more than anything else, it was an economic union. There were six original members, and now there are 27, with nine patient countries currently being candidates for membership: Ukraine is one of them. Significantly for Greece, where I live, Turkey is not. Greece joined the Union in 1981 and adopted the euro as its currency in the year 2000. In the meantime, Britain is the only country that has left the EU: I attribute this retrograde step to the fact that voting is not compulsory in the UK, and to the wiles of certain politicians, who played on the nostalgic yearning many Britons have for their imperial past, and on a certain influential xenophobia. Now many Britons consider Brexit a disaster: why this disillusionment appears to have come as a surprise I do not understand. But Britain sent its Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, to the Munich Security Conference, which was held over the weekend of the 14th to the 16th of February.
There have always been criticisms of the Union: it is no easy matter, after all, to try to weld 27 different countries into a harmonious whole, and many countries fear for their individual images, even though the EU Constitution, while aiming for a common European destiny, encourages the separate countries to remain proud of their history, culture, and national identities. Attitudes change, however: years ago, polls showed that Greeks felt the least European of all the membership groups. But approval of Europe in Greece has risen steadily with the passage of time, and Greeks are still very Greek!
My middle son lives in Warsaw. When he was first there, he said, ‘Gosh, Mum, the Poles really hate the Russians.’ Rather than attempt an explanation, or relevant comment, I told him to take a quick trot through Polish history in order to understand why this is so. He has now been in Poland for three years, so I asked him what he observes about Poles and Europe now. ‘They are so afraid of the Russians,’ he said, ‘that they want to be in Europe, but they don’t really think much of Brussels and they are very proud of being Polish and don’t want the idea of Europe to chip away at that.’
Other criticisms of the Union concern an often unwieldy and wasteful bureaucracy, over-regulation, corruption, a tendency towards elitism, lack of transparency: there is a long list. And some Eurosceptics seem very reluctant to change. ‘The English have always hated the Germans,’ a German-speaking Scot told me at the time of the Brexit referendum; much earlier, it had been an Englishman who told me he hated the French. ‘Why?’ I asked. ‘They let us down so terribly in 1940’ was the somewhat unexpected answer. Decades had passed, but the feeling was apparently going to linger forever. And so he strongly disapproved of the EU. I know of only three of my friends who voted for Brexit, and one said, with an annoying air of satisfaction at the time, ‘The European Union will implode, see if it doesn’t.’
Well, the Union hasn’t, at least not so far. But it has faced threats expected and unexpected during the last few years. One of these was of course the Covid pandemic. There has been an energy crisis, the ongoing problem of climate change, the surge of immigration, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is also the huge difficulty of the rise of the far-Right, and the on-going disaster of Gaza. Europe as a single unit is being tested as never before.
Recently I watched Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Acting President of the transatlantic think tank the German Marshall Fund, being interviewed about Europe. She seemed concerned about its future for several reasons. She saw Germany and France as no longer being in tandem and considered that a bad sign. She also said that there were signs of Europe being further fragmented and saw the rise of the far Right as yet another problem. But, most threatening of all, she saw Europe as being far too dependent on others and being squeezed between the superpowers of the United States and China. She made the point that Europe had to start spending much more money, particularly on defence, as she put her view that Russia will continue to try to destabilise the West.
But, as we know, things have changed drastically in just a few short weeks. And it is only a matter of days since President Trump spent 90 minutes on the phone to President Putin, whereas President Biden had not spoken to the Russian President in nearly three years. The main matter discussed was the ending of the Russian-Ukraine war. At first it appeared that Ukraine would not be included in the negotiations; that omission had apparently been rectified, but the latest news is that President Zelensky was not notified of the forthcoming meeting of American and Russian delegates to take place in Saudi Arabia, and so will not be attending. Europe has been passed over entirely, even though it seems quite clear that America expects Europe to take over support for Ukraine.
'Europe has had to fight for its life throughout history and has evolved in the face of many obstacles, into the shape it is now. It will not alter that shape without a mighty struggle.'
Salt was rubbed into this serious wound by J.D. Vance, the American vice-president, whose speech at the Munich Security Conference sent shock waves through most delegates. Expected to speak mainly about the prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine, he launched an attack on Europe itself, accusing it of retreating from shared values and ignoring voter concerns about migration and free speech.
This, not unnaturally, has been regarded as a twin crisis, for the countries of Europe regard the Russian-Ukraine war as their war, too, and there is resentment of the fact that Vance has lectured Europe about democracy while working for the man who, not too long ago, tried to engineer a coup against the United States’ government. Germany’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock, spoke very powerfully at Munich, pointing out that Europe was facing an existential moment, and that there could be no peace in Europe over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans. She also spoke of a ‘resilient democracy,’ and the need to combat disinformation.
President Zelensky has pointed out that the old relationship between America and Europe has now gone and has added that he believes it is time that Europe had its own army. President Macron’s reaction was to summon European leaders to an emergency summit almost immediately. Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy, Denmark, and the Netherlands will attend. So will Britain. In the wake of Vance’s speech and its implicit threats, the main issue to be discussed will be European security.
English historian and Supreme Court judge Jonathan Sumption, lauded for his brilliant legal mind, has a new book out: The Challenges of Democracy and the Rule of Law. He says he is not optimistic about the future of democracy, and lists countries in which it has been rolled back. But most of these are in South America. It is dismaying, however, that the representative of the land of the free and the home of the brave should sternly criticise the use of European ‘firewalls’ against the far right. The phrase ‘there is a new sheriff in town’ has been used, and it seems that this new sheriff and his minions are keen to enable the populist right to seize power in Europe. Sir John Major, erstwhile Prime Minister of Britain, has just warned that indeed global democracy is in danger.
.png)
We have to believe that Europe will persist. After all, most nations in the Union have had experience of fascism: there are very good reasons, for example, for Germany’s refusal to engage with the far-right Alternative for Germany, the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration populist party. Europe has had to fight for its life throughout history and has evolved in the face of many obstacles, into the shape it is now. It will not alter that shape without a mighty struggle. And as the Chilean kayaker lived to tell the tale, we have to hope that Europe will survive its Jonah moment, and that it will not be defeated by any aberrant American whale.
Gillian Bouras is an expatriate Australian writer who has written several books, stories and articles, many of them dealing with her experiences as an Australian woman in Greece.
Main image: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the 61st Munich Security Conference on February 15, 2025 in Munich, Germany. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)