Four days after being handed a thumping defeat in the Aston byelection, Peter Dutton has taken the biggest gamble of his political career. On Wednesday, flanked by his deputy Sussan Ley, Dutton finally confirmed what had long been expected — the Liberal party will oppose the indigenous Voice to parliament and the opposition leader will campaign against it.
In choosing this path Dutton has potentially placed his future as leader of the Liberal Party on the line and chosen to align himself against a still-popular new prime minister, a veritable who’s who of Indigenous leaders advocating for the Voice and community sentiment.
All published opinion polls show the proposal has majority or near-majority support in every state and territory, though that support is softening.
The breadcrumbs for Dutton and the Liberals arriving at the decision to oppose the Voice — and sundry other policy positions — were laid nearly 12 months ago, in the opposition leader’s first press conference.
Dutton repeatedly promised to focus on winning votes in the suburbs, to speak up for small business, to critically work through the detail of the proposed Voice to parliament, to support sensible climate change policies that did not hurt families or small businesses and he did not resile from his tough talk about the challenge posed by China’s rise.
In the 12 months since the Coalition has opposed Labor’s climate policies, formalised its opposition to the Voice and remained hawkish on China, while attempting to reset its relationship with Chinese-Australian voters.
'Aston, held by the Liberals since 1990, was supposed to remain in the Liberal column. The byelection defeat has rightly alarmed Liberals about the party’s direction.'
The opposition leader also said in that first press conference that voters had sent a ‘pox on both your houses’ message to the major parties and highlighted swings against Labor in outer suburban seats.
And while it’s true Labor’s primary vote fell to 32 per cent and it suffered swings against it in some outer suburban seats, that swing was more than offset by Labor, the Greens and the so-called teals and other independents gaining seats in capital cities across the country.
A progressive majority of 89 seats was elected to the House, just one fewer than Tony Abbott won in his thumping 2013 election win. Aston, held by the Liberals since 1990, was supposed to remain in the Liberal column. The byelection defeat has rightly alarmed Liberals about the party’s direction. Dutton’s strategy of highlighting rising cost of living pressures and opposing the Albanese government on key pieces of legislation did not work.
In the wake of the defeat, Liberal MPs I spoke to blamed the dysfunctional state branch, people not yet blaming Labor for those cost of living pressures, the parachuting in of candidate Roshena Campbell from across town and the timing of the retirement of sitting member Alan Tudge.
While the excuses are many, the simple fact is this: Aston is exactly the sort of seat the Liberals under Dutton should be hanging on to, and Dutton’s plan has been to win more of them at the next federal election.
While Labor won just eight seats at the election, the Coalition lost 18 and needs 18 to return to the government benches. That’s an enormous task, especially considering the last one term government in Australia was James Scullin’s, which was booted out in 1932.
By opposing the Voice to parliament, Dutton likely makes his own task of winning back the formerly heartland Liberal seats taken by the Teals, Greens and Labor more difficult, too. The members for Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein (in Melbourne), Warringah, North Sydney, Wentworth, Mackellar (Sydney), Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith (Brisbane) and Curtin (Perth) will all be backing the Yes campaign.
The question then becomes are there enough outer suburban seats for the Liberals to win back power at the next election and the Aston result suggests that right now, the answer is no.
So why would Dutton oppose the Voice and narrow his path to the Lodge?
First, Dutton lived through the Brendan Nelson-Malcolm Turnbull-Tony Abbott leadership changes between 2007 and 2010 and he has placed a premium on keeping his party united and has managed it so far. Given the vast majority of his MPs oppose the Voice to parliament, Dutton was always going to formally oppose it.
Second, Dutton has judged that support for the Voice is soft and will likely soften further in the lead up to the referendum day, which is likely to be October 14. He is genuine when he says he regrets walking out of the 2008 apology and when he says he wants to see practical solutions to the problems that beset regional and remote Indigenous communities — but of course, there is also a potential political dividend by opposing the referendum.
Dutton’s choice of words on Wednesday about the ‘Prime Minister’s Canberra Voice’ was no accident and recalled Tony Abbott’s lethal ability to deploy language as a weapon. Expect to hear that phrase repeatedly in the coming months.
Defeat in the referendum would be damaging to Anthony Albanese and Labor — to say nothing of the damage to Australia’s social fabric and relations between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians — though the prime minister will blame the opposition leader if the referendum is defeated and his supporters will likely agree with him.
This, combined with 880,000 people moving from a fixed rate to a (higher rate) variable mortgage in 2023 housing shortages, spiralling rents and food prices means there is a chance the political mood could swing away from Albanese and Labor by the end of 2023.
Opposing the Voice pleases the Liberal Party’s so-called base and is consistent with Dutton’s views and his supporters in the party room, but it’s a high stakes gamble for the opposition leader to take, too.
Does it make him a viable alternative prime minister?
This brings us back to Aston. The first electoral test of the opposition leader, a painful defeat, does not augur well. If he cannot win outer suburban seats like Aston — and former Liberal seats held by Teals are beyond reach, in part because of his opposition to the Voice — then there is no path to the prime ministership for Dutton.
But if the referendum fails, the economy tanks and a growing number of people can’t pay their mortgages or rents, the mood of the country could turn very quickly.
James Massola is National Affairs editor for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, based in Canberra. He has previously been South-East Asia Correspondent, based in Jakarta, and Chief Political Correspondent in Canberra. He has also worked for the Canberra Times, the Australian, the Australian Financial Review, as assistant editor of Eureka Street and is a regular commentator on ABC radio and TV. He is also the author ofThe Great Cave Rescue about the Thai boys football team.
Main image: Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton reacts during Question Time at Parliament House on March 30, 2023 in Canberra, Australia. (Martin Ollman/Getty Images)