Most early commentary on the swift coming to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan has focused on how it happened and who was to blame for it. Much of the blame has been focused on United States President Biden and former President Trump. Increasingly attention has turned to the plight of people in Afghanistan, particularly women and those who helped the occupation forces and women. The quest for guilty parties obscures deeper questions about the reasons for Western involvement in Afghanistan and for its abandonment, and about their effect on the human beings affected by it.
The most important people involved are the Afghan people themselves. They have lived under the occupation and must now live under the Taliban. It is difficult, however, for an outsider to generalise about them. We do know the responses of the mainly urban Afghans who have benefited from it and will fear the leaving. These include women, particularly in cities, won greater freedom and access to education and public life, interpreters and others who have worked with the occupation forces, and minority ethnic groups who had found some respite from persecution. Others benefited through their businesses from the influx of money, or in less tangible ways through interaction with individual soldiers and the charitable activities they sponsored.
These, however, form only a small proportion of the Afghan people, most of whom are rural and have lived off the land before and during this latest invasion of their land. They will have to deal pragmatically with the Taliban and local war lords, as they did with the Taliban and the Government Forces, hedging their bets in order to survive.
The crucial Afghan group affected by the invasion and its ending is the Taliban. Their dispositions and actions will affect all the people whom they rule. We have no reason for believing that their regime will be less severe its adherence to a religious ideology focused on punitive law, and social practices marked by the control of women by men. Since first coming to power, they have been invaded, driven from power, regrouped, been attacked and finally returned to power. Such experiences do not make men gentle.
It would be a mistake, however, to see the Taliban as homogenous. Some Taliban leaders clearly see the need for international recognition and access to Afghan funds in overseas banks. They have promised moderation. The warriors who are given local responsibility, however, will