State politics shaped this federal election. Malcolm Turnbull should send Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, in particular, a thank you card.
Whatever the eventual outcome, federal Labor's poor performance in his state, probably caused by the lingering dispute between the volunteer firefighters and the state government and other state factors, might just have made the difference between defeat and victory for the federal Coalition. Rather than Labor winning one or two seats in Victoria it may have lost Chisholm, its sole loss anywhere. In football parlance such losses are worth eight points.
As we await the final House of Representatives outcome two things are clear, using criteria for judging the leaders against seats won and lost which I laid out last Thursday ('How the scores could read', Canberra Times, 30 June 2016).
The performance of the Opposition Leader exceeded expectations. The pass mark for Bill Shorten was a net gain of ten seats and a credit mark was 15, which was going to push the government close to minority status.
As it turned out Labor looks likely to make a net gain somewhere in the range of 12 to 16 additional seats. That might just give them a chance of minority government. But even if it does not it should guarantee Shorten's tenure as Opposition Leader as well as win him greatly increased respect within the wider community. Labor has won a significant increase in momentum if nothing else.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand has fallen well below his highest expectations. A loss of seats of this magnitude was always going to weaken him at a time when he cannot afford it.
Turnbull's strength has always been related not just to his capacity to govern but to his apparent electoral popularity. This election result was another hit to that perception following on falling personal opinion poll results.
If he remains Prime Minister, as he probably will, he now lacks the strength necessary to fight the plethora of battles which will now confront him. His challenges will include:
"While Turnbull did much better than Abbott would have at this election conservative Liberals will never admit this."
How to manage the dynamics within the House of Representatives, including a potential period of negotiation with cross bench members about forming a minority government.
How to prevail in the battle of ideas about social and economic policy in the wider community, including the forthcoming same sex marriage plebiscite where his authority will