When people calculate the likelihood of things going pear-shaped for John Howard, the usual assumption is of economic downturn, a bust in the housing bubble, sluggish world trade and increasing voter dissatisfaction over issues such as university education and Medicare. On international matters, the Prime Minister is thought to have both the initiative and the advantage. But most of the uncertainties of the year ahead are international, particularly in our region. John Howard will be lucky if things work out as he hopes. Indeed, they could throw all the disadvantages of his strategy into broad relief.
Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia will have elections over the next year. It is hard to predict outcomes, even harder to see how the results could work to Australia’s advantage. Indonesia will host the first popular election for the presidency: previously the president has been chosen by the parliament. It is doubtful that Megawati Sukarnoputri can win. While it is not clear who her opponent will be, at least one candidate should be a stalking horse for the TNI, the Indonesian armed forces, and his chances—it will certainly be a he—would have to rate highly. Not a few of the candidates will campaign from Muslim platforms, even among those who are secularist. They are unlikely to think that saying friendly things about the United States or its local deputy will be attractive to voters. The Bali bombings shocked Indonesians and do not assist extremist politicians; but Iraq and the anti-Islamic aspects of the crusade against terror, as well as lingering resentments about Timor, keep the West unpopular. Australia’s tentative renewal of relations—particularly involving police co-operation —may be difficult to sustain under a new regime.
Malaysia sees the exit of Dr Mahathir Mohamad, a long-time critic of Australia, but also one who has successfully suppressed Muslim tensions and maintained a broadly pro-Western outlook. His successors are likely to hold similar views, but may find it difficult to match his capacity for juggling balls in the air—not least as Malaysia aspires to champion the rights of developing countries in securing access to the agricultural markets of Europe, the US, Japan and Korea.
In the Philippines, it’s by no means clear whether Gloria Arroyo will stand for the presidency again. Co-operation from her government in countering domestic Muslim separatists and international connections is patchy at best and unlikely to improve under her successor.
The outlook in the Pacific is hardly rosy.