For all their differences the Palmer United Party (PUP) and the Greens each suffer from widespread disdain and criticism in mainstream commentary. Yet together they now boast the support of 20 per cent of the community (up from 14 per cent at the last elections). And they now hold the future of the Abbott Government's legislative program in their hands, including the Budget, failing agreement between the major parties.
The Government needs 39 votes in the new Senate but only has 33 of its own. Effectively the support of either minor party will suffice without Labor. The nine Greens Senate votes will clearly do the job and although PUP's four votes will fall short by two the Government probably will often be able to find two more from among the other four Independents and micro party senators.
The Budget will be the first test. The negotiations will set the scene for the remainder of this parliamentary term. Attention will continue to focus on PUP and the Greens. They will face the usual problems for minor parties. These include handling the stress, maintaining party unity, marshalling staff resources, keeping up with the flow of government business, and having enough articulate senators to present the party's case effectively to the public. Outside of the parliament the usual worry for minor parties is to keep their own members happy.
Back in the early Howard years the Australian Democrats stumbled in a number of these areas, especially parliamentary and party unity.
PUP suffers from a number of potential weaknesses. All their senators are new to the job. Their leader is outside the Senate. They reckon they have insufficient staff. And they have no clear unifying ideological framework.
But they continue to be underestimated by both the major parties and the media. In the past similar foolish underestimation of political figures outside the usual mould, like former Qld Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen and former Independent and then One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, rebounded badly on the major parties.
Palmer, an enigma, has already survived longer than many of his critics last September thought he would. In fact he has grown in confidence and reputation rather than walking away or falling in a heap. He has a special eye for publicity and the media are drawn to him almost despite themselves. His new senators should maintain party discipline at least in the short term because Palmer effectively 'owns' them. Individually they may show