The emphasis on the relationship between Tony Abbott and women is fuelled by opinion polls that consistently show that he is less popular with women voters. Newspoll has him trailing Julia Gillard among women as better prime minister by 41–34 per cent. The same poll showed Gillard trailing Abbott among men by 42–36 per cent.
But gender is only one factor. Public opinion polls and academic voting studies reveal many ways in which support for political parties and leaders varies according to demographic categories. Other common newspaper poll categories include age, state and urban-rural location. Academic studies add other categories such as religious denomination and church attendance.
Some of these variations are fairly stable over time and don't vary much according to party leader. For instance rural voters, especially farmers, traditionally support the Coalition parties disproportionately.
The fact that Abbott and Gillard are now the leaders offers voters more variation than ever before with one of the leaders being a woman. In other ways, too, including religious belief, there are differences. Although both are city representatives of similar age, Abbott is from Sydney and Gillard is from Melbourne. All of these differences may produce variations in voter support for the leaders and for the parties they lead.
Abbott's relative unpopularity with women does appear to have a personal component, even though women voters have become increasingly attracted to Labor since 30 years ago when it was Labor not Abbott that suffered from a negative gender gap.
There are plausible reasons for his apparent 'gender trouble'. His personal style has long been characterised as macho and aggressive, a style that many women voters do not find attractive. Well before he became leader his role was that of his party's head-kicker. His personal policy preferences include emphatic opposition to abortion, a position that is not popular with many feminist women, but which has not become his party's policy.
It is plausible that this combination has contributed to his 'gender gap' with women voters. Each of these attributes are popular with some women, it is true, but probably not with a majority of women.
However, undue concentration on the role of gender in shaping voter choice serves to downplay other very interesting variations.
Age is one. Gillard is much more popular than Abbott among younger voters. The same recent Newspoll survey showed Gillard was rated better PM over Abbott among 18–34-year-olds by 41–35 per cent (almost the same as her gender