In 1917, British forces hoisted the Union Jack over Baghdad. In the words of one chronicler, hoisting that flag was an act that marked ‘the thirtieth seizure in history of this Caliphs’ capital with minarets in the skies and feet in the mud’. Today, the difficulties of Iraq dominate current affairs. Talk of ‘the American Empire’ is commonplace enough; talk of the Iraq affair signalling its impending failure is starting to appear more often. For some, Iraq is the touchstone for general American decline. Whether it is or isn’t, the suggestion poses bigger questions still: is America really an empire? If it is, is it in decline? And if Iraq won’t, what would bring down such an empire?
Amidst the theories, historians often posit the rise of competing powers, or the over-stretching of imperial aspirations as triggers for decline. But today, one true seed of decay exists and it is taking firmer root by the year. It is a new threat to a new type of empire. It is nothing less than the ageing of the developed world.
Beyond the threat of a terrorist holocaust, the less visceral but more likely prospect seems to be the slow decline occasioned by an ageing population that can no longer fuel its own future productivity or pre-eminence. Over time we may find that, with the application of sufficient vigilance and resources, terrorism might be managed within ‘tolerable’ levels—a new cold war that can be waged beneath the daily consciousness of the majority. But the many implications of an ever-ageing population are especially troubling, because no simple answers are apparent and the effects are felt everywhere. The citadel’s old and neglected walls may crumble under their own weight, rather than being smashed spectacularly from without. But the result remains the same—the citadel falls.
The whole of the developed world lives in an empire of sorts. It is not one of occupation or colonisation in the traditional sense, but, measured by any historical standard, given the relative health, wealth, comfort and ease within which so many of us live, it may as well be. This empire is a societal grouping, amalgamated by the elevated positions of many in the developed world on the ladder of global prosperity; by their participation in familiar markets of trade and by their allegiance to similar socio-political systems. For the most part, the citizens of this empire are afforded unprecedented freedoms, opportunities