The election result has already anointed winners and losers. They will only be confirmed by the final minority government outcome. The early winners are the balance of power holders, the rural Independents in the House of Representatives and the Greens in the Senate.
The Independents have hit the jackpot in terms of popularity and potential power. They have generated an amazing level of euphoria among the media and within the general community about their merits as individuals and as MPs; merits it must be said that were not previously recognised so enthusiastically.
They can now put demands to the major party leaders knowing that they have great leverage. These demands can range widely over what I have called the three Ps: policy, pork-barrel and preferment. To that list can be added a fourth P: Parliament.
They have already generated a range of interesting ideas about reform of Parliament and possible new public policies, capitalising on widespread public disillusionment with the party political system.
Sitting on large majorities in their own electorates they speak from a position of personal security. But they know that that security can always evaporate if they neglect or anger their own constituents.
An even bigger danger facing the Independents is that they are raising expectations about a 'new politics', like others before them, that may be eventually dashed. Kevin Rudd was one who suffered from raising expectations with excessive hyperbole about great moral challenges. This happened too with the Democrats who promised to keep the bastards honest.
Some of their ideas, like limited parliamentary reform, are practical, but others, like grand coalitions, are naive. The forces behind the status quo are strong and the public is fickle. If the Independents fail to deliver they might eventually suffer a backlash.
The Australian Greens' vote share has risen to new heights despite considerable opposition, including a vigorous last-minute attempt to scuttle them by a coalition that included sections of the media, the mining magnate Andrew Forrest on economic issues, and church magnate Cardinal George Pell on social issues. Like minor parties before them, the Greens, with limited resources to fight back, were hit hard but survived.
Notably the Greens represented an alternative to the major parties on issues like climate change, asylum seekers and refugees, same sex marriage, and the war in Afghanistan.
On some of these issues, like climate change and same sex marriage, opinion polls suggest they represent majority public opinion. On others, like asylum