On Saturday 26 March New South Wales voters will elect the state's 55th Parliament. Liberal leader Barry O'Farrell (pictured) seems so certain to head a coalition government after 16 years of Labor rule that media speculation has concentrated on the size of the majority he will command.
During an election campaign, candidates mix with the people and face public scrutiny. They appeal for support on both broad and specific grounds, pledging themselves to behave with integrity and promising to legislate for particular policies. Elected candidates claim that the voters' endorsement gives them a popular 'mandate'.
Labor has governed NSW since 1995. Its mandate was renewed in 1999, 2003 and 2007. For various reasons — fatigue, ministerial resignations, mismanagement, allegations of corruption, policy failures — voters are unlikely to renew its mandate. Psephologists say no Labor seat with a majority under 15 per cent can be considered safe and that Labor could be reduced to a rump of about 16 seats.
If voters are disappointed with Labor now, they could be positively angry after the election. Labor's unpopularity is providing the Coalition with such an easy campaign that an O'Farrell Government will face very little pressure over specific mandates. As the election seems to be a non-event in terms of deciding government, the public is showing little interest in specific policy debates and the media have brought little pressure to bear on the Coalition over policy details and likely costs.
O'Farrell seems to be a decent and moderate sort who will behave honourably. He will be mindful however that few Opposition Leaders who win elections remain in government as long as their parties. Not since the 1930s has a premier who was a winning Opposition Leader lasted as long as his party in government. O'Farrell must consider his legacy from the first day.
The pressures on premiers are enormous, and not since Bob Askin (1965–75) has a Coalition premier lasted five years. Interestingly five post-war Labor premiers have had over five years to implement their programs, perhaps because the Labor machine has been so dominant.
O'Farrell will be subject to very diverse forces including the Liberal and National Parties and the Coalition's natural constituency in the 'big end of town'. His immediate winning Coalition predecessor in 1988 Nick Greiner was partially successful in managing these forces. Greiner's comfortable majority however, disappeared at the 1991 election.
By contrast, Bob Carr increased Labor's one-seat 1995 majority so greatly in