Information gathered in the Census will play a central role in the planning of the next Federal election. Over the next year all manner of information will be collated, sliced and diced for a range of purposes. The most important for politicians and party strategists will be the collation of that material on an electorate by electorate basis. Groups will be targeted and messages honed.
This will include detailed data such as age profiles, income levels, family composition, education qualifications and religious affiliation. The 2006 census data has been twice sliced and diced. The second time was after the redistributions for the 2010 election.
When adjusted to reflect the results of the 2010 election this data presents us with an opportunity to compare religion, incomes and political outcomes in a finely balanced hung Parliament of 150 members. It presents some valuable insights which are likely to be confirmed by the 2011 Census.
In the 2010 election Christians (63.9 per cent of the population) tended to support the Coalition, but not by much. Of the 75 most Christian electorates, the Coalition holds 39, Labor holds 33, and rural Independents hold three. However, of the 50 most Christian, Labor holds only 20. Prior to the 2010 election Labor held 43 of the 75 most Christian electorates and 27 of the 50 most Christian seats.
The distribution of those with no religion (18.7 per cent of the population) ranges from 6.5 per cent in McMahon to 30.1 per cent in Kingston. Labor has less than half of the electorates that have the highest proportions of those with no religion: 33 of the top 75 and 23 of the top 50. So Labor appears to get no electoral benefit from those who report no religion.
How did Labor get enough seats to form a minority Government in 2010? The answer is found in the separation of the Catholic vote from the total Christian vote. Catholics (25.8 per cent of the population) provided the votes that underpinned Labor's electoral survival.
The Catholic population varies from 44.5 per cent in McMahon to 12.7 per cent in Mayo. Of the 75 most Catholic electorates Labor holds 46, the Coalition 28, and Independent Bob Katter, one. Of the 50 most Catholic electorates, Labor holds 33. Labor holds eight of the 10 most Catholic electorates. At the other end of the scale Labor has only 17 of the 50 least Catholic electorates.
So