As the US election year warms up with caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, it is worth noting that the spectacle of the nomination process can mute certain realities. Candidates generate quite a bit of heat and noise within their party, but whether a presidential nominee actually wins the majority of votes in the Electoral College is another matter.
There is also the longer, post-election context: how much would your nominee set back the party for future races, if they lose?
One factor that has become inescapable, particularly for Republicans, is that their white conservative base is shrinking. Projections by Pew Research Center indicate that in 50 years white Americans will constitute less than half of the population.
So while the Republican slate has perhaps enlivened some of its constituencies with nativist campaigns and evangelical appeals, it is difficult to imagine such a strategy securing the longevity of the party.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres wrote in the Wall Street Journal in March 2015: 'Groups that form the core of GOP support — older whites, blue-collar whites, married people and rural residents — are declining as a proportion of the electorate.' Minorities, along with young people, gays and single women, are not only growing but lean Democratic.
Ayres concluded that in order to win presidential elections, Republican candidates would have to bear 'an inclusive message, a welcoming tone and an aggressive effort to appeal to the new America that is already here'. It goes without saying that the complete opposite has ensued.
While it is not entirely sensible to extrapolate developments in the United States to Australia, it is worth speculating on the impact of our own changing demographics. Are the Liberal and Labor parties equipped to take advantage of these shifts? Are they appealing to a new Australia that is already here?
The 2011 Census indicates that more than a quarter of the Australian population was born overseas, and a further fifth has at least one overseas-born parent. The proportion of our Europe-born population has declined (52 per cent in 2001 to 40 per cent in 2011) even as our Asia-born proportion has increased (24 per cent to 33 per cent).
Such migrant patterns would surely have an impact on the composition of our electorates. It is hard to tell at this stage whether any major political party is accounting for the policy sensitivities of this increasingly significant cohort.
For now, the apparent advantage lies