In 1956, a team of American psychologists published When Prophecy Fails, on the response by a group of UFO cultists to the non-appearance of a promised flying saucer. The researchers chronicled how the failure of predictions did not lead to the cult's collapse. On the contrary, after a brief period of confusion, the members readjusted their beliefs and became even more fervent in proselytising their faith. The book comes to mind these days as the environmental crisis increasingly confounds the assertions of sceptics.
Today, CO2 levers have reached 414 parts per million, a level not experienced on earth for millenia. The world's five hottest years have all occurred since 2014 — and 2019 looks set to continue the trend. Climate models have become sufficiently robust that the researcher James Annan has developed a tidy little sideline taking bets against those who tell him warming isn't real. Unprecedented fires rage across the Amazon, in Africa and the Arctic. In Australia, we have such fires, too — but we also have reef bleaching, mass extinctions and prolonged drought.
Yet Liberal frontbencher David Littleproud just explained that he 'didn't know' if humanity was responsible for climate change. With major rivers like the Murray Darling in a state of utter collapse, you might expect a Minister for Water Resources to have done some investigation into the key issue for his portfolio, especially given he's also supposed to manage the bushfires that might bear some relationship to a warming planet. But apparently not.
What was more, in his refusal to link intensifying fires with climate change, he was backed by Bridget McKenzie, the Nationals deputy leader, Matt Canavan, the minister for resources and northern Australia, and Sussan Ley, all of whom, according to the Guardian, 'denied knowledge of or downplayed the link'.
The same phenomenon can be observed overseas. Trump, of course, calls climate change a Chinese plot, and appointed to his National Security Council the (now departing) physicist William Happer, who compared hostility to fossil fuels with 'the demonisation of the poor Jews under Hitler'. In the UK, the hapless Boris Johnson has assembled what some environmentalists have called the 'most anti-climate action' cabinet ever, while Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro promotes denialism even as the Amazon burns. Why aren't the denialists confounded?
In the Interpretation of Dreams, Sigmund Freud tells the story of a man who defends himself against accusations he had given back a borrowed kettle in a damaged