Signs that East Ukraine has averted mass human tragedy

11 August 2014

At the time of writing on Sunday, the ABC was reporting that the destructive civil war raging in East Ukraine since April now seems to be drawing to a close, essentially on Kiev’s terms. It appears that the tense test of wills between Russia and the West generated by the crisis, which briefly last week risked a wider war, has ended in a tacit backdown by Moscow.

The ABC news report carried the following:

Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine say they are prepared to strike a ceasefire deal with Kiev forces as Russia calls for ‘urgent measures’ to prevent a humanitarian disaster in the region.

There are conflicting reports whether Russia actually tried in recent days to send in an armed ‘humanitarian convoy’ to relieve the beleaguered separatist forces in East Ukraine. Kiev says they did try, but were warned back. Moscow says this is a fairy tale. The truth is probably that US intelligence picked up signs of mobilisation for such a move, and Obama warned Putin it would be regarded by the West as a hostile act.

So ends, in my interpretation of published news, the biggest threat to East-West peace since the Cold War. It ends in devastation and tragedy for the people of East Ukraine.

As my former DFAT colleague (and former Australian Ambassador to Moscow) Cavan Hogue commented on Saturday:

It’s a very complicated situation. Places like Crimea and Odessa and where the troubles are now are inhabited by Russian-speaking people who think of themselves as Russian. So, are we going for self-determination or are we going for territorial integrity?

It seems that territorial integrity has won.

Hogue also suggested that for Australia publicly to insult the Russian Government seemed pointless: what was in it for us to get involved? He wondered how much of this was for domestic purposes? I will answer: almost all of it. The outrage over the M17 shoot down, seemingly by Moscow-armed separatists who mistook it for a Ukrainian airforce plane on a bombing mission against them, and the anti-Moscow sentiments of sizeable numbers of Australian voters, created a fertile field for vote-garnering by a beleaguered Abbott government. Perforce, Labor has to follow suit.

As for the Americans and European Union, they must have been irritated by Abbott’s inept efforts to put himself front and centre of international response to the MH17 disaster. The vainglorious foolishness of the proclaimed armed ADF/AFP mission to seize control of the

INTERNATIONAL

Signs that East Ukraine has averted mass human tragedy

Subscriber login