After Donald Trump's first ten days in office the shape of his presidency is beginning to be discernible. Its final shape will be determined by how he responds to events outside his control (including those initiated by him). But what we have seen merits reflection.
Much of what he has done is by way of promise: to open facilities used for torture, to build the Mexico wall, to spend massively on the military, to drop the Trans Pacific trading pact and to revise others, to build pipeline on environmental and Indian heritage grounds, and to prevent government agencies from promoting action against climate change. He has halted travel and immigration from seven Muslim nations and appointed his chief political adviser to the National Security Council. And he has continued to tweet liberally.
These promises and actions make clear what we can expect from the Trump presidency. Economically the President will keep his promises to lower business and personal taxes and direct massive expenditure to infrastructure. This will deepen inequality. He will also protect United States industries, hoping that these measures will give employment to people left aside by globalisation and benefit their communities.
Both in domestic and international relationships he will protect the short term economic interests of the United States. He will encourage exploitation of the environment, protection in trading relationships and make other nations pay for any United States services.
In his domestic policy we should expect punitive action in the name of security against minorities and against community groups that protest against violations of human rights. Both have been displayed in his suspension of entry visas for people from the seven nations. Culturally the administration will encourage disdain for informed opinion, for the search for truth and for stored wisdom and for their repositories — including the mainstream media, academia, non-government organisations, environmental scientists and historians.
And we can expect that the President will continue to scattify his critics by multidirectional rapid twitter fire that keeps their heads down and leads them to respond jerkily to each provocation.
If the success of a presidency is measured by re-election, there is no reason why the Trump presidency should not be successful. The stimulus given to the economy will certainly benefit the wealthy few. It may also bring some benefit to people neglected in recent years. And even if it fails, voters may respond favourably to his appeal to national self-interest and his scapegoating of