Same sex marriage has now been defeated in the Tasmanian Upper House as well as in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Will the issue now fade away or is ultimate success for the same sex marriage cause inevitable? The political commentator, Paul Kelly, discussed this question in The Australia recently and forecast what he calls a lengthy cultural conflict. In doing so he drew several comparisons with the republic question, but he neglected important differences between their politics.
The defining characteristic of the same sex marriage debate in Australian politics is that it has a big international dimension. It is this characteristic that will probably ensure its political longevity. There are more important political arenas, including the United Kingdom and the United States, than Australia for this debate.
If same sex marriage continues to gain momentum around the Western world then the Australian debate will not go away. If much of the West adopts same sex marriage then the pressure on Australia to do so will eventually be great. But should international interest fade away then it probably will in Australia too.
Whatever the future of republic-monarchy debates in Australia they are not of the same international character and therefore are quite different from same sex marriage. There are a number of Commonwealth countries seriously considering the move to a republic from the monarchy, including Jamaica, but Australia's international comparators are really only Canada and New Zealand. Effectively it is a stand-alone domestic issue.
A second important difference lies in a factor that Kelly did recognise, which is that same sex marriage is also very much a state and territory issue. The ACT has shown this for some time and several states are currently debating the question. This will continue. Importantly this means that within Australia there are multiple parliamentary avenues for advocates to pursue the same sex marriage cause.
This has not been the case with the republic question, which is about national constitutional reform. Certainly the states play a role, as they are constitutional monarchies too, but the state parliaments have never been major arenas for monarchy-republic debates.
This difference gives same sex marriage advocates a big advantage over republicans as they have many