So the Labor caucus finally took Malcolm Turnbull's advice. The Liberal frontbencher's much-quoted remark about the strange phenomenon of a party whose hatred of a deposed leader was stronger than its instinct for survival pithily summed up the last three years in Australian politics.
But last night that long-repressed survival instinct welled up and surfaced as Kevin Rudd reclaimed the Labor leadership with the support of 57 out of 102 members of caucus. The question is whether the instinct has taken hold too late to make any difference to the result of the federal election.
There will be many, not least the 45 ALP MPs and senators who voted for Julia Gillard, who will see this as a contemptibly cynical analysis of the ousting of Australia's first woman prime minister. Already a narrative is emerging, especially in social media, of the martyrdom of St Julia. Some say Rudd's return is entirely to be attributed to sexism and misogyny. Others blame media obsession with opinion polls, apparently believing that voters have no view until a pollster's questions prompt — or even guide — them in forming one.
Of the latter claim, suffice it to say that it oozes the elitist disdain for ordinary voters of those who utter it. Lest we forget, one consequence of compulsory voting is that a long-term trend in the polls almost always indicates the election result. And what they have been indicating is that Labor is headed towards the greatest defeat in its federal history, with its numbers in the 150-seat House of Representatives likely to shrink from 71 to as few as 35, and with nine ministers likely to lose their seats.
Yesterday that dismal prospect even focused the mind of Bill Shorten, one of the factional chieftains who manoeuvred Gillard into the Lodge in 2010. Announcing he'd abandoned his oft-declared support for her, Shorten said people close to him would resent his decision. He did not only mean longtime associates such as the Australian Workers Union boss Paul Howes, another powerbroker of the ALP right who helped propel Gillard into power. Doubtless he also had in mind his wife, Chloe Bryce, leader of the Women for Gillard campaign.
As for the role of sexism in Gillard's downfall, her own comment during her press conference last night got it right. She said that sexism partly, but not wholly, explained the political obstacles she has faced.
Of course she has suffered insults and