Speculation is in the air again that Julia Gillard's leadership is under immediate threat. It has been fuelled, if the roaring blaze needs any more fuel, by the Malaysian asylum seeker processing controversy, yet another disastrous opinion poll (Nielsen in The Age and the SMH), a revitalised Kevin Rudd, and perhaps by the satirical ABC TV program At Home with Julia.
Now I didn't predict Kevin Rudd's demise last 24 June but I did say the next morning in the Canberra Times (and later in Eureka Street) that Rudd might still have won the next election and that the consequences of the change were unpredictable. That has turned out to be the case in spades.
In recent times I have argued consistently, including in Eureka Street, that Labor now should stick with Gillard for better or worse and hope that the next election is not for another two years. Labor will most likely lose that election, but my view has been that no other potential Labor leader will do better. The failure of multiple changes in NSW to improve Labor's situation is one piece of supporting evidence.
Even if Gillard was to be replaced it should only be after being given a decent shot at the job; therefore, no earlier than mid-2012.
Gillard's position now can most likely not be revived. But where there is life there is hope and she seems determined to stay the course. Her spirited performance in parliament last week in support of the carbon tax legislation shows that.
I don't see At Home with Julia as causing her more damage, and it may even evoke sympathy. It is certainly disrespectful of the office of PM but, while there has been no previous direct equivalent, other prime ministers, including John Howard, have copped plenty of disrespect too. 'Look-alikes are the craze both here and in the USA.
However never before has an Australian leader's spouse been lampooned like Tim Mathieson. He has to endure a lot to sexism, but will rise above his portrayal as a goofy house husband-type figure.
The Nielsen Poll is especially stark evidence of the weakness of Gillard's position. What was new about the poll was that it sharpened the choice for anyone considering a leadership