Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard are enjoying their bounce, and their honeymoon, as John Howard predicted they would. Early polls suggest a marked upsurge in the Labor vote, in approval for the Labor leadership change, and in comparisons between the performance of Rudd and the Prime Minister. Were an election to be held now, one might think Labor would romp it in.
But there's no election being held now, and none in prospect for at least 10 months. John Howard, and the Liberals, would not be worried yet. The timing of an election (almost certainly after the late-August APEC meeting in Brisbane) is in their hands. There is another budget, and set of carefully meted-out goodies for marginal voters to be arranged. There will also be a steady chipping away, with all of the benefits of incumbency, at the issues they believe to be working for them.
Of course, there is also time and the scope to work on perceived weaknesses of Rudd, of Gillard, of Labor. The Liberal party will hope that a man they believe to be inexperienced, brittle and none too personable implodes, and for the public to come to 'know' Rudd and to 'realise' that there's not much salvation from him on offer.
It worked last time with Mark Latham. He won the leadership (also from Kim Beazley) about the same time out from an election. The public welcomed the change and the polls blipped for Labor. Latham's different style foxed John Howard for a while, and Labor had some tactical successes on issues it created. For the first time in a long time, it seemed to be setting the agenda rather than carping about what the Government was doing. Ultimately, attempts to hang L-plates on him, plus a monster spending campaign worked, and Latham imploded.
Well, not quite. Latham, contrary to the now current wisdom, did not implode until after the election. Many observers, who knew well how fundamentally ratty he was and who had been predicting that he might lose his calm, his cool and his tight control, were astounded at the discipline, the strategy and self-belief which he exhibited up to the election. Sure, he lost the election, but he did not 'lose it' while doing so.
Latham's chief weakness, the lack of a coherent economic policy and a coherent economic message, went against his instincts. He was pushed hard by his advisers