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Polls and trolls

  • 22 April 2021
  In my limited and unavailing exposure to classical physics, I remember vaguely only two principles, that to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, and that in systems the energy differential declines and naturally reaches zero. I was reminded of these principles when reflecting on the implications of the opinion polls taken after the public outrage about the treatment of women in Parliament and the consequent strong criticism of the Prime Minister.

It is axiomatic that all intelligent people consider polls on political intentions to be unreliable. That no doubt says something about the mental acuity of those of us who duly glance at the news poll every month or so. The breakdown of the figures of this and similar polls, however, was interesting. It showed that support for the Prime Minister had declined substantially among women, but had remained steady or increased among men.

Psephologist Adrian Beaumont remarked on similarities with the voting patterns in last year’s United States election, where candidates who were accused of acting abusively or crassly towards women did not suffer electorally. He surmised that the differential between the responses of men and women might be influenced by a backlash against political correctness.

Political correctness is a phrase whose currency derives from its use in the so-called ‘culture wars’. They deserve further reflection in the context of the polls. I have placed culture wars in quotation marks because they really are misnamed. Wars suggest the image of two states attacking one another.

The culture wars might be better described as cultural muggings. They are like counter-insurgency operations, in which a heavily armed and resourced national force identifies and exaggerates the strength of a few resistance fighters and bombs and shells their villages. The purpose of the campaigns is to make isolated resistance to be seen as a vicious force motivated by a shared ideology, and so to strengthen support for the national status quo. Tactically, the operations incite dissidents to violent, authoritarian or abusive behaviour, depict it as representative of all dissidents, and erode public support for dissent by destroying its ethical base. The goal of the campaigns is not to gain territory but to prevent loss.

The campaigns characterised as culture wars in the United States and imported into Australia have characteristically tried to undermine ethically based movements for change. They are often supported financially by people who benefit for the status

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