Analysts across the globe have become adept at predicting the implosion of Pakistan. They suggest that the culmination of the Taliban, economic woes, a weak central government, a corrupt military, an uncontrollable intelligence organisation, the possibility of another terrorist strike and the tensions with India will result in a failed state. March saw them yet again heralding the coming apocalypse.
But March has merely been an example of the cyclical nature of Pakistani chaos. It has not been an indication of its imminent failure. The logic of implosion is flawed.
The much feared creep towards Quetta by the Taliban is of international concern but it is not the primary reason for Pakistan's instability. There are certainly multifarious links between the Taliban, regional terrorist organisations and the insurgency in Afghanistan. But to fight on every front is strategically impossible and totally implausible.
In due course the Taliban problem will be confronted and hopefully resolved. But it will not happen before the internal political situation stabilises. Nor will it happen without US help.
Reform of the military and of Inter-Services Intelligence will be an incremental process that will occur only as civil society in Pakistan strengthens and the government re-aligns itself. Patience is a virtue in South Asia. Although the situation is not improving quickly, it does seem to be improving.
On 24 March Pakistani stocks closed at their highest level for the year, buoyed by MSCI Barra's assessment that political risk in the country had decreased. By the end of the month Pakistan will receive the next instalment of its US$3.1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund,following successful quarterly review meetings.
The Obama administration has pledged to expand economic engagement with Pakistan, recognising that economic development may provide a bulwark against insurgency and violent extremism.
In a move that confounded international commentators, surprised Pakistani citizens, and left the Indian media dazed and confused, President Zardari pragmatically acquiesced to both external and internal pressure by reinstating the Musharraf-deposed Ifthikhar Chaudhry to the post of Pakistani Supreme Court Chief Justice.
In doing so, Zardari averted a planned protest march by irate lawyers and the violence that may have accompanied it, pacified the Pakistan Muslim League enough to restart dialogue, and engaged in an allegedly constructive discussion with Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani.
Many assume that another terror attack of the severity of those in Lahore or Mumbai would suck Pakistan into a nuclear war with India. Yet South Asia is spectacularly