In recent weeks Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama appears to have gained significantly in the polls, pulling ahead as far as ten points nationally over John McCain in some polls. With a week to go until the election, everyone's question seems to be, what effect will latent racism have on the actual vote?
In 1982 African-American Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. At the time of the election he was up by 12 points, according to Democratic polls. Yet somehow he lost by a half a per cent. The post-election analysis suggested that polled voters had not honestly expressed their preference, perhaps out of a discomfort that they would appear prejudiced, or because they had a prejudice they didn't want exposed.
Since then, analysts have spoken of the 'Bradley Effect' to describe the percentage point melt that occurs for African-American candidates on election day.
However, the data on this phenomenon remains inconclusive. A recent study of 133 elections held between 1989 and 2006 and involving African-American candidates found on average a Bradley Effect of three percentage points before 1996.
But since 1996, African-Americans running for office have performed on average three percentage points better than their polls predict. Could it be possible that Obama is doing even better than his poll numbers suggest?
Analysis suggests that racism may play a factor in the Catholic vote in certain parts of the country. A September front-page story in The New York Times featured a Catholic parish in Scranton, PA, hometown of Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden.
Of six Catholics interviewed who voted for Hillary Clinton, five said they would now support McCain, not Obama. While some said this was due to McCain's pro-life stance, one indicated quite directly his reason was race. Referring to the White House, he asked, 'Are they going to make it the Black House?'
A local political scientist affirmed that this working-class Catholic community 'is a tough area for Obama and some of it is race'. Though few are eager to express their bigotry, similar inclinations are suspected in other working class Catholic communities.
And the Republican Party has been keen to provide cover for such prejudice by playing upon other fears. Since Obama first became a candidate, the ardently conservative, Rupert Murdoch-owned FOX News has always referred to Obama by his full name, Barack Hussein Obama, in a not-too-subtle attempt to link Obama to terrorism.
Likewise, as the