Julia Gillard's new policy on asylum seekers appears at first sight to be politically effective. It promises to curb the boats eventually, without offering a quick and brutal fix. But it raises many questions.
The concept of a regional processing centre in East Timor appears to differ from the Pacific Solution in that it would be a cooperative venture between nations that are signatories to the United Nations Convention. These nations would presumably together have responsibility for offering protection to those found to be refugees.
The first challenge of any such centre will be to ensure a consistent, fair and statutory process for judging the claims of asylum seekers. Such a process does not exist on Christmas Island, and it will be difficult to ensure it on East Timor.
The Prime Minister also insists that the centre 'would, of course, have to be properly run, properly auspiced, properly structured'. For the Australian Government to ensure that such a centre in East Timor respects the human dignity of asylum seekers will be difficult. Similar arrangements with Indonesia were not satisfactory.
The next challenge will be to ensure that those found to be refugees are quickly resettled. Otherwise it will be difficult for East Timor to maintain support for the centre. The plight of people held in East Timor for an indefinite time would also attract attention both in Australia and elsewhere. It is difficult to see how there can be quick resettlement unless Australia, and perhaps New Zealand, receive most refugees. Other nations will regard them as Australia's responsibility. So this scheme is not an effective means of Australia shifting its perceived burden.
The third challenge will be to prevent rejected asylum seekers who make a claim within Australian territory from seeking redress in Australian courts. Current court cases in the High Court will test the legality of current Australian procedures. Because the Australian detention regime breaches the trust between asylum seekers and the Australian Government, it has been time consuming and difficult to deport asylum seekers whose cases have been dismissed. It may be difficult also in East Timor.
Finally, it will take much time to come to an agreement that satisfies the interests of Australia, New Zealand and East Timor, and is compatible with the demands of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the meantime boats will continue coming, perhaps with greater urgency, to Australia. Any semblance of good order and