The latest strut and show of force on the Korean Peninsula again shows that the pugnacious, dangerous leader of the DPRK (North Korea), Kim Jong-un, is holding the cards over his counterpart, US President Donald Trump.
The intercontinental ballistic missile test by Pyongyang last Tuesday of the Hwasong-14 — one that was, on this occasion, successful — was the outcome of insecurity and fears that have been the hallmark of the regime for decades.
In and of itself, that is understandable: the peninsula is technically at war, having not formally normalised peace after hostilities concluded in 1953. Given that very fact, and the most heavily militarised border on the planet, military initiatives to bolster North Korean security have been inevitable.
The DPRK's options in terms of defending itself against the might of the US and its allies were always limited, leaving the way open for an assortment of pantomimes. The arsenal of the threat became normal: that, for instance, of incinerating Seoul in a sea of fire, the possibility that Tokyo or Alaska might be targets.
So far, the show seems to be moving beyond the next line, the next boundary of what is deemed acceptable. But that is largely because Trump deemed it impossible that Pyongyang would have a viable ICBM option that could reach the United States.
From the start, the stance on negotiations has been intentionally frozen. The placement of the unacceptable objective is a constant feature of dealing with the DPRK. Central to this is the effort to prevent any attempt on its part to acquire a viable nuclear deterrent.
The refusal by the United States to consider a peace and security solution that involves denuclearisation only after the formal signing of a peace-treaty; the open acknowledgment that Washington will not engage in regime change, has assisted this dilemma. This is a regime that exists on smoke signals of reassurance that never arrive.
The entire matter of capability and options remains a matter of conjecture. The illusion is fundamental, and that is part of the show in the game of deterrence. As the announcement on North Korean state television went with inevitable hyperbole, North Korea had become 'a full-fledged nuclear power' that had acquired 'the most powerful inter-continental ballistic rocket capable of hitting any part of the world.'
"Kim Jong-un's conduct behind a weapons program that will form a credible deterrent has been logical, effectively making the response from his enemies irrational."
A dangerous error