Leadership contest casualties leave large holes for parties to fill. That is becoming more and more obvious with the Liberal Party at the moment. Brendan Nelson's retirement raises the question of the consequences for the Liberals of his early departure.
Defeated Leaders of the Opposition are of two types: fragile and sensitive sprinters and robust and durable stayers. The sprinters rise quickly and briefly shine before losing their position and then leaving Parliament. Apart from Nelson, other recent sprinters are Mark Latham and John Hewson.
Hewson became an accidental Liberal leader in 1990. He had never been a minister, having only entered Parliament in 1987; though he had been a promising shadow Treasurer. Had he not become an unsuccessful Opposition Leader, defeated by Paul Keating in 1993, Hewson would have served in the next Liberal Government. He may even have become Treasurer in the Howard Government instead of Peter Costello.
Latham also became a sprinter after he lost to John Howard in 2004. First elected in 1994, he became Opposition Leader in 2003 and left parliament early in 2005. If Latham had retired gracefully to the Labor shadow ministry in January 2005 he would have subsequently become a minister in the Rudd Government.
Stayers remain in Parliament, reconciled to their more junior status, to serve their party even after losing the leadership. The obvious stayer has been Howard. But there are others.
Labor's present Minister for Trade, Simon Crean, was an unsuccessful Opposition Leader for two years from 2001–2003. He has demonstrated extraordinary staying power since he was first elected to the Parliament 19 years ago.
One of the consequences of leadership contests and party defeats is that they often inflict deep casualties on the leadership group. Nelson is retiring at 51 in his political prime after only 13 years in Parliament. He could easily have served his party in a senior capacity for another decade and still retired as a relatively young man.
One consequence of Costello declining the Liberal leadership after the defeat of the Howard Government was that Nelson became Opposition Leader for less than a year. Now less than two years into the new Parliament he is leaving politics altogether.
Yet under Costello Nelson would have served as a successful senior shadow minister, probably in Defence or Foreign Affairs. Instead the Liberal Party has lost yet another experienced, but still relatively youthful, member of its leadership team.
That would be bad enough but the Liberals