Should Tony Abbott connive in allowing Julia Gillard to remain prime minister or should he try to force her out come what may?
This question is a version of the old conundrum that faces any opposition which secretly wants an unpopular government leader to stay until the next election while publicly trying to remove them as soon as possible. It is not a particularly unusual situation, but neither Coalition voters nor the Leader of the Opposition appear to have thought this through at the moment. Nor have the media outlets that report on the big public opinion polls.
This week's Herald/Neilsen poll shows Abbott is preferred to Gillard as prime minister by 46 per cent to 44 per cent. Neither leader is popular, though Gillard is especially unpopular. Only 39 per cent approve of Abbott's performance (57 per cent disapprove) and 36 per cent approve of Gillard's (60 per cent disapprove).
The poll also asks voters about their preferred Labor leader. The Sydney Morning Herald report shows that Kevin Rudd leads Gillard by 62 per cent to 32 per cent. But that figure is distorted by the overwhelming pro-Rudd preference of Coalition voters who prefer Rudd to Gillard by a massive 71 per cent to 19 per cent. Labor voters actually prefer Gillard to Rudd by 53 per cent to 45 per cent.
Despite having such a low approval rating Gillard retains the majority support of Labor voters, which, in one important sense, is what should matter, though Rudd is still remarkably popular given all that has happened.
Why are Coalition voters so anti-Gillard? One possibility is that Rudd is out of sight out of mind. Another is that they detect particularly unattractive qualities in Gillard.
Yet another is that they are just taking Abbott's lead. In his Budget reply speech he called for Labor to replace Gillard. This is good rhetoric but is it good strategy? Is this really what Abbott wants? He has also called for an early election which, presumably, would be fought against Gillard, whom he admits refuses to lie down and die.
On the question of whether Labor should change leaders, the SMH again gives prominence to the overall figure, that 52 per cent of the electorate say Labor should change