Today marks one year since Kevin Rudd fell from the Labor leadership, making way for Julia Gillard's ascension. One year is a long time, and also no time at all.
It is common to mark the first anniversary of a loss or change; to reminisce and feel renewed regret. If only, why, and what if questions plague us. What might life be like now if the death blow hadn't occurred? Has the outcome proven this to be a misjudged decision or a cruel twist of circumstance?
Professor Andrew Samuels, author of Politics on the Couch, who has been political consultant to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President Barrack Obama, proposes the importance of politicians owning up to their human imperfection. The vision of the heroic leader is doomed to be deflated. The not-perfect but good-enough leader is more sustainable.
In this Samuels borrows the analytic model of the 'good-enough' parent, who is basically trustworthy and principled, but is not infallible. In the heyday of Obama's 'Yes We Can' campaign Samuels was relieved to hear the future president declare 'I'm not perfect' twice.
Samuels contends that in political leadership there is an initial idealisation, an inevitable failure to deliver, then denigration. In other words, the hailed messianic leader is likely to fall from great heights, as disillusioned followers discover his or her human failings.
Rudd and Obama were both invested with the high hopes of many. Obama became the first black president in the wake of the disastrous Bush presidency. Rudd slew the Howard dragon after a decade of arrogant and oppressive rule. In these two wins, intellect seemed to triumph over machismo.
But by the end of his first year in office, each of these leaders was being slammed in the polls. As Rudd fell, the new saviour was installed. Gillard was hailed as Australia's first woman prime minister, which was seen as a great achievement that was destined to raise the fortunes of Australian women.
Gillard was going to lead us (as the previous government had gotten lost) through the wilderness and out of the mire of the mining tax dispute. She would sort out the chaos of border protection and wrestle with the threat of climate change.
But Gillard, too, has fallen. One merciless headline declared her to be 'Madam 31 per cent'. This is even lower than Rudd's famous nosedive in 2010 to a 34 per cent approval rating.
The latest Nielson Poll