In 1958, Aldous Huxley told a Californian university audience that the idea of human civilisation co-existing long-term with atom bombs was “utopian”. In the 21st century it is the vision of nuclear abolition which typically bears that label. Abolition? It’ll never happen. Not in my lifetime. Generations away.
Was Huxley dreaming?
Recent events in the Middle East have brought this question into sharper focus. Western nations are tightening the noose around Iran’s neck for its nuclear recalcitrance. How many centrifuges? How much Highly Enriched Uranium? How long will it take to build the Iranian bomb? Iran shelters under Article IV of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), which legally empowers it to develop a nuclear capability—on the understanding that it forswears military use of the dual technology.
Meanwhile, Israel lashes out at guerrilla forces embedded in civilian populations in Lebanon. Its leaders elect not to employ their most powerful unacknowledged weaponry—nukes—on this occasion, but it raises the question of their broader role in middle-eastern politics. Israel has no nuclear competitors in the region: its atomic arsenal means it can punch well above its weight. Even if the Iranians manage to get off the blocks in a regional nuclear arms race, they are a long way behind the leader.
This is not to argue for less scrutiny of Iran, but for more scrutiny of Israel’s nuclear weapons project. Not just of the arsenal, but of the strategic doctrine on which it rests. While authoritative estimates put the number of Israeli nukes in the hundreds, nuclear strategy is utterly opaque due to Israel’s refusal to acknowledge their existence.
But the nuclear sceptre dangling asymmetrically over the Middle East merely reflects the wider global imbalance, as demonstrated at last year’s Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York. The NNPT is a bargain wherein the nuclear weapons states (NWS) agree to eliminate their nuclear arsenals, while the non-NWS relinquish the right to develop them. Despite having signed the treaty 36 years ago, none of the NWS look like concluding their side of the bargain any time soon. The stockpiles have been reduced, but they have also modernised their arsenals and/or updated their strategic doctrines for 21st century utility.
North Korea has created nuclear weapons from its “peaceful” nuclear program, and has withdrawn from the treaty. Meanwhile, Iran has violated its Safeguards agreement by conducting certain experiments and engaging with the Khan Network, and