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Impeached Trump is the symptom, not the cause

  • 20 December 2019

 

In a turn of events predicted since he announced his candidacy for President, Donald Trump has been impeached. Not for boasting that he regularly grabs women by the genitals without consent, nor for abuses of power violating constitutionally enshrined human rights by barcoding and then imprisoning children at the US/Mexico border. With Trump's history of abuse and oppression it is the sweetest irony that all that was necessary for impeachment was an abuse related to the investigation of a rich, white political rival's son.

The impeachment has been reported as a resounding victory for democracy, and for rational minds in the United States and worldwide. Importantly however, Trump's impeachment is extremely unlikely to trigger his removal from office, let alone disqualify him from re-election in 2020.

To remove Trump from office requires a two third majority in the Senate, which necessitates 20 republican senators to side with the democrats. US political experts believe this to be highly unlikely due to the fact that Senate republicans are so afraid of losing Trump supporters in their own states that most have refused to disagree with, let alone criticise, the president publicly.

Even in the event that Trump is removed from office, he will still be able to run for president in 2020 unless the senate orders a second vote, and a simple majority decide to disqualify his candidacy. If Trump is not disqualified from re-election, it is likely that any impeachment will only fire up Trump's loyal base and encourage a higher voter turnout in his favour in 2020.

If I were to bet my hat on it, the senate will vote to acquit Trump, and loyal Trumpists will ensure he is re-elected for a second term. However, even if Trump is removed from office and is disqualified from re-election, this is not the resounding victory many believe it to be. Trump is but one man and his election is only one example of a world-wide resurgence in the popularity of racist, sexist and 'anti-PC' candidates.

This type of candidate is particularly attractive to supporters who are fueled by a desire to claw back the power they believe they have lost due to increased civil and human rights protections implemented over the last 100 years. This disturbing trend has been evidenced world-wide, in countries like Australia, Great Britain and Brazil where the people elected candidates running on platforms advocating hardline campaigns of hatred and bigotry.  

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