If politics is theatre, climate politics is a family drama. For the last decade we've watched two rival households having the same endless argument. (In fair Canberra, where we lay our scene.)
Political journos call it the 'climate wars' and mostly focus on the lead actors standing in the spotlight. That's understandable: in the Western narrative tradition, characters drive events. And so we all know the story of Abbott usurping Turnbull for the Liberal leadership over emissions trading in 2009, clinching victory by one vote. We watched Abbott destabilise Gillard's reign with his relentless 'carbon tax' jabs, then brutally repeal the price on carbon legislation.
At times it's been a fascinating character study of Malcolm Turnbull, forehead wrinkled with worry as he contorts between his conscience and ambition. Most recently it's been a farce, with lumps of coal passed around parliament as a comedic prop.
Almost no one has noticed the scenery change. Stagehands dismantled the backdrop years ago, but the politicians have kept carrying on as if the same circumstances existed when they started this charade ten years ago.
Now Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has entered from the wings with a new report that should make the Coalition realise everything around the debate is different, and the old lines don't make sense anymore. Instead, Abbott and co., desperate for some attention, are doubling down on stale rhetoric.
Let me explain what I mean by all this theatre analogy stuff with a quick recap of the 'climate wars'. Act One started in 2007 when both John Howard and Kevin Rudd went to the election proposing an emissions trading scheme.
Rudd won, ratified the Kyoto Protocol — something Howard had refused to do — and then introduced the flawed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull supported it, but many in the Liberal Party didn't, and Tony Abbott used the division to seize the Liberal leadership.
That's what the players we're doing, but as I said, the background is more important. At this point, the debate consisted of some core assumptions. First, that renewable energy needed subsidies to compete. Second, that a plan to cut emissions would push up power prices and cost jobs. Third, that business and industry preferred the status quo.
"As energy analyst Tim Buckley has pointed out, this staggering technological and economic shift is hardly mentioned in the debate. In fact, the market is transforming so quickly that the Finkel Report's modelling is already out of date."
These assumptions