Egyptian democracy a long way off

05 July 2013

Events in Egypt are unfolding so rapidly that Egyptians woke up with one head of state — President Mohamed Morsi — and went to sleep — if they could — with another. The Chief of the Armed Forces has suspended the constitution and parachuted Adli Mansour, head of the constitutional court, into the role of interim president.

With events moving at such breathless speed, and no less complicated because of it, any commentary should be modest. Particularly from the other side of the world. Let us begin with what is clear. After a year in power, the first democratically elected president of Egypt has been ousted by the military, emboldened by widespread popular support.

Now, in the memorable words of Donald Rumsfeld, the known unknowns. Were more people revolting against the regime than who had voted for it? Protest is, after all, a form of democratic expression. Sexual violence is NOT.

And what role will the military play in the future? Hardly a neutral arbitrator, having been comfortably curled up in Hosni Mubarak's lap for decades of anti-democratic rule, the military is now calling for fresh presidential and parliamentary elections. Outmanoeuvered by Morsi over the presidency, will they now get a bigger slice of the pie? Or will they be true to their word and transfer power to a legitimately elected civilian leadership by a certain date?

And of course the million dollar question: will any of this improve the lives of ordinary Egyptians?

Morsi may not get much sympathy in the West. The candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic political movement that unapologetically opposes secularism, he is viewed as an Islamist strongman. The Brotherhood itself has steadily built a political following in its 80 year history, despite being outlawed by successive governments and being something of a routine punching bag for Egypt's military (see 'neutral arbitrator' point above). It renounced violence back in the 1980s but the whiff of bloodshed and unashamed religiosity continues to colour perceptions.

Nor has he governed particularly well. In the years since Mubarak tumbled, so has the country. Egypt's rating on the Failed State Index has slipped from 45 to 34. Foreign reserves have been depleted and the budget deficit will be up around 12 per cent. Youth unemployment is nearly 25 per cent. Crime, including murders, robberies and kidnappings, continue to balloon. In short, the country is a mess.

However, the truth is that this crisis was not merely

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Egyptian democracy a long way off

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