Christine Milne takes over the leadership of the Greens from Bob Brown at a crucial time for the party. The polls are steady at about 12–14 per cent give or take a few points, predicting a performance at the next federal election somewhat in the same ball-park as last time. In 2010 the Greens polled 13.1 per cent in the Senate and won six seats for a total of nine senators.
But there is a difference between electoral performance and political influence, and therefore the Greens have a particular interest in the overall composition of the senate not just the party's own numbers. This fact is sometimes overlooked.
Recent media reports draw attention to the serious possibility that the Coalition may not only win the next election but win it so well that it would control the Senate without the assistance of the Greens, just as it did from 2005–2008. These reports speculate that even if the Greens won six seats once again for a total of 12 senators the combined Labor-Greens Senate numbers would fall below a majority.
Not only might the Coalition's numbers rise significantly, but the possibility of the addition of a senator representing Bob Katter's Australian Party in Queensland would mean three Independent senators (including Nick Xenophon in South Australia and the Democratic Labor Party's John Madigan in Victoria).
This is where Milne comes in. She brings new characteristics to the position of leader, including her education at St Mary's College, Hobart, and her past connections with the environmental agencies of the Catholic Church.
Milne's first step as leader was to emphasise the need to increase Green support in rural and regional Australia and she backed it up with a well-publicised rural tour. Her public statement after her election emphasised the need for Green support to be not only deep but broad across Australia. She herself has connected well with farmers and the fishing community in the past.
Not all rural Australians vote for non-Labor parties but most still do despite some demographic change that has helped build Green support in certain mainland coastal areas. The Greens also suffer on polling day from the difficulty of organising enough supporters in the big rural electorates to hand out how-to-vote cards. Anything Milne can do to improve the party's situation in this regard is worthwhile.
The Greens need to attract votes from otherwise non-Labor voters rather than the easier task of picking up disappointed Labor