Environment delegates are meeting for two weeks (1–12 December) at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Poznan. With a large accompanying NGO and youth presence, this Polish city is hosting 11,000 visitors for a preparatory meeting for the next major UN conference on climate change in Copenhagen in December 2009, tasked to negotiate a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Treaty, which expires in 2012.
Poznan seeks agreement on a 'vision' and concrete agenda for Copenhagen. Environmentalists had hoped Poznan would see announcements by major Western nations of aspirational numerical targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The European Union showed early leadership by committing to reduce its emissions by at least 20 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020.
The Bush-administration US delegation, which wouldn't quantify targets, is ignored. But Obama's name is everywhere. He pledged last month to set the US on course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020, and reduce them an additional 80 per cent by 2050. He sent an inspiring message to the Poznan meeting:
'Now is the time to confront this challenge once and for all. Delay is no longer an option. Denial is no longer an acceptable response. The stakes are too high. The consequences are too serious.'
So the heat is off the US. Meanwhile, Australia, Canada, Japan and Russia are still refusing to put national numerical GGE targets on the table. As resources exporters and/or major coal users, they are reluctant to match the ambitious EU 2020 target. All are waiting to see what others say.
The influential Australian coal industry and supportive industry lobbies would prefer much lower targets for 2020. They appear to have prevailed. Marian Wilkinson reported on 1 December that Minister Wong had reversed her previous public commitment to announce Australia's 2020 target at Poznan.
Wilkinson reported predictions that on 15 December, Wong will announce a 2020 cut of between 5 and 15 per cent. Reaction from more than 50 climate groups in Australia was swiftly condemnatory.
In Poznan, South Africa has now named and shamed Australia, Russia, Canada and Japan for not declaring 2020 targets. China has called on developed countries to offer a 25 per cent cut.
These numbers matter internationally. By not supporting a the generous stance of developed countries at Poznan, Australia is making it less likely that developing countries led by China, India and Brazil will