The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency accusing Iran of conducting research that goes beyond the civilian use of nuclear energy, is the most serious charge levelled against Iran by this agency. It states that 'the application of such studies to anything other than a nuclear explosive is unclear to the agency'. In diplomatic parlance, this is as damning as one might get.
Not surprisingly, the Iranian authorities have dismissed the report as 'politically motivated'. But this attitude will not be sufficient to prepare it for the impending international fallout. The United States has already signalled presenting the United Nations Security Council with tougher sanctions.
In anticipation of this report, President Obama even resorted to the language of his predecessor, by saying that all options are on the table. This is a not-so-subtle threat of a military response, even though most analysts don't see such action as realistic or helpful.
Nonetheless, the threat of a military strike against Iran is becoming a staple news item. The Israeli government has even discussed this in its cabinet. This may be brinkmanship diplomacy, but Israel has a track record of targeting nuclear facilities in its neighbourhood (Iraq in 1981, Syria in 2007).
A unilateral Israeli attack on Iran would be disastrous for the region, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied any decision on that point. But leaks to the media that keep the threat in the public eye help Israel maintain pressure on Iran, and set the agenda for the United States.
This new development comes at a time when Iran's Islamic regime feels particularly vulnerable. The Arab revolution has shaken its confidence, allowing internal rifts and disputes to come to the fore.
The regime felt reasonably secure in 2010 after it suppressed the Green Movement for reform. Its use of para-military thugs and brute force put an end to street demonstrations and went some way towards rebuilding the image of the regime as united and 'in charge'.
But this image has come under strain during the 2011 revolutions in the Arab world. Despite every effort by the regime to present this popular movement as vindication of its ideology and model of government, the masses have made it clear that they are not following the Iranian model. Even the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt rejected