Over the last ten months or so, it has become commonly accepted wisdom in Canberra that Labor is hurtling towards minority government. Peter Dutton has too high a mountain to climb, so the theory goes, to catapult back into office after one term because the Coalition parties must win back 21 seats to claim majority government. But Anthony Albanese and Labor? Too cautious, too timid, they don’t stand for much and haven’t done much, have they?
Albanese’s baffling move to drop $4.3 million on a home for himself and fiancé Jody Haydon has been interpreted as further evidence that the Prime Minister’s famed political radar is not what it once. As one of his ‘gobsmacked’ colleagues told me last week, ‘I can’t think of a greater act of self-sabotage in my life’. One by one, cabinet colleagues were rolled out to defend Albanese’s judgment and his right to purchase a home.
And sure, he is as entitled as any other person to buy a home and enjoy the fruits of his labours. Given his log cabin story — the boy who grew up with a single Mum on a disability pension, living in government housing — he is particularly entitled to feel proud of his many achievements. But the issue here is not what Albanese is entitled to do. It’s that he seemed to have temporarily forgotten that prime ministers are subject to more scrutiny than any other member of the parliament — and that the invisible line between what is public and what is private business has all but dissolved in an age when almost everyone has a smart phone in their pocket and can publish instantly across social media platforms.
Yes, being prime minister must be at times a terrible job, and being able to think and plan for the future with the person you love would be a welcome distraction through 20-hour days and interminable flights around the country. But it’s also a privilege. And what is certain is that purchasing that Copacabana, NSW beach house risked a housing campaign at the next election in which Albanese is characterised as ‘Mr Cliff Top Mansion’, much as Malcolm Turnbull morphed into ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion’ back in the 2016 campaign.
And in an election campaign in which cost of living is expected to be the number one issue, with the cost of renting or buying a home perhaps the most important point of policy difference, making a caricature of yourself is perhaps not a smart move. Perhaps Albanese has lost a yard in terms of tactical smarts, as some of his colleagues are starting to wonder. I believe it’s too early to make that call.
What is clear is that Albanese has suffered for being a cautious PM. He has enjoyed too much the long ‘Scott Morrison is no longer PM’ honeymoon before seeing a slow, steady decline in his approval rating and Labor’s primary vote, and now he needs to do something to revive his government’s flagging fortunes.
He is not alone in this caution.
In the United States and the United Kingdom, the major parties of the centre left are led by people who share these cautious characteristics. Labor, the Democrats and Labour share a belief in the urgent need to tackle climate change, a belief in freer trade and open markets, and a concern at the decline in trust in the institutions that have buttressed and underpinned the liberal democracies — political parties, courts, major companies such as banks and supermarkets, the public education and health systems and even the media.
'Albanese must embrace risk, as John Howard did in the 1998 GST election, and do so in a way that reminds people what he stands for. Jim Chalmers has his Treasury department working on options relating to negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms.'
And Albanese, Kamala Harris and Keir Starmer are all personally cautious, too. All three are engaged in the politics of avoiding hard things and voters are marking them down for it, if the polls in Australia, Starmer’s first 100 days and Donald Trump’s slight lead over Harris are any guide.
Which brings us back to the issue of a potential Albanese minority government after the next poll. Albanese came to power with a plan for a long-term Labor government that, importantly, would reclaim key ‘trust’ equities from the Coalition including who is better at managing the economy and who is managing the defence of Australia. By being cautious, by hurrying (slowly) to reform, by handing down consecutive surpluses and fully committing to the AUKUS nuclear deal, Albanese believed this was possible — and initially Labor took the lead on these and just about every other measure. But in the wake of the Voice to parliament referendum defeat, the High Court’s NZYQ decision on indefinite detention, numerous own goals including the census questions debacle and the leak on possible negative gearing changes, and the horror of Hamas’ actions on 7 October 2023 — and the Israeli response, which has roiled domestic politics for a year — those key equities have dissipated.
Yes, plenty of Australians have question marks in mind when they think of Peter Dutton as prime minister. But Labor is not going to arrest the slow decline in its support by avoiding hard things and shrinking further in on itself. The government’s strongest decision this term has been to alter the stage 3 tax cuts to make them more equitable.
Albanese must embrace risk, as John Howard did in the 1998 GST election, and do so in a way that reminds people what he stands for. Jim Chalmers has his Treasury department working on options relating to negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms. There are other policy options that could be pursued, too.
What it comes down to is this: long after he has left politics and he’s sitting on his back deck on the NSW Central Coast, how does Anthony Albanese want to be remembered? As a bold leader, or a cautious incrementalist?
James Massola is National Affairs editor for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, based in Canberra. He has previously been South-East Asia Correspondent, based in Jakarta, and Chief Political Correspondent in Canberra. He has also worked for the Canberra Times, the Australian, the Australian Financial Review, as assistant editor of Eureka Street and is a regular commentator on ABC radio and TV. He is also the author ofThe Great Cave Rescue about the Thai boys football team.
Main image: Anthony Albanese (Getty Images).