I had tipped Turnbull to win.
Hockey's decision that he would only stand as a candidate who offered a free conscience vote on the ETS bills precipitated a defiant decision by Abbott on Monday afternoon that he would stand as a third, anti-ETS candidate. I wrongly tipped that Abbott would be eliminated in the first round, and that the final contest would be between Turnbull and Hockey — in either case, the ETS bills would have become law.
It seems the Liberal party room disliked Hockey's challenge of a conscience vote on the ETS: perhaps because most of them are not ready to acknowledge that climate change is a conscience issue (though the climate security of our children is surely a conscience issue?) as well as an economic policy issue. They seemed to prefer the shelter of a clear how-to-vote direction on the ETS, to be held to personal account.
After Hockey's elimination on the first round, Abbott beat Turnbull in the final round by just one vote (42–41).
Abbott then shrewdly called an immediate secret ballot on whether the party should first seek the referral of the ETS bills to a committee, failing which the Opposition senators should vote the bills down this week. Abbott cemented this policy by a decisive vote (55–29).
He will argue, rightly, that these numbers give him a clear mandate to lead a new Coalition policy on the ETS and climate change. If Rudd should now — as he must be tempted to do — call a double dissolution election on the rejected ETS bills, Abbott is defiantly ready.
But as his victory press conference made clear, Abbott will have to deal with some major contradictions in framing an electorally attractive policy on the rejected ETS and climate change. Abbott is on record as saying the climate science is 'crap'. He said yesterday this was 'a bit of hyperbole. It is not my considered position.'
He said, 'I think that climate change is real and that man does make a contribution ... We do want to reduce our emissions and those targets [the emission reduction targets proposed by the Rudd Government of 5–25 per cent by 2020] stand ... We will have a strong and effective climate change policy, it just won't be this ETS.'
Abbott's stated opposition to the ETS is that it is a massive tax transfer from households to big