As cardinals gather in Rome this week, the stakes could hardly be higher. The 2025 conclave promises to be one of the most consequential the Catholic Church has faced in decades, with challenges that will test the wisdom of whoever emerges as pontiff.
When Jorge Mario Bergoglio stepped onto the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica in 2013, he seemed the perfect antidote to a Church in crisis. His blend of performative humility and reconciliatory gestures captured the zeitgeist. His progressive papacy emphasised simplicity and compassion and rehabilitated the Church’s reputation after Benedict XVI’s intellectually rigorous but sometimes maladroit tenure.
Francis won admiration from unlikely quarters: progressive elites in Europe and North America. They nodded approvingly, while the global poor embraced him as their champion. Yet a decade later, the landscape has shifted dramatically, leaving his successor with a formidable set of challenges.
The fault lines between Catholic teaching and contemporary attitudes toward sexuality and bodily autonomy remain unreconciled. Progressive Catholics grow increasingly impatient for evolution in Church positions, while conservatives view the Synod on Synodality as a potential Trojan horse for doctrinal change.
That Catholicism continues to wane in its former European strongholds but flourishes elsewhere is an ongoing paradox. Managing this geographic shift presents distinct challenges. How can the new pope help foster appropriate structures for emerging Catholic communities while addressing the decline in traditional bastions?
Ironically, where growth is occurring in Europe and North America, it is often centred around communities of traditional liturgical practice—precisely the groups that Francis antagonised. His limitations on the Latin Mass have alienated younger, traditionally minded Catholics who now represent a disproportionate share of vocations and conversions in these regions. The next pope must decide whether to reverse course to embrace this wellspring of renewal.
The new pope must also confront the Holy See’s mounting pensions crisis. Under Francis, it failed to generate adequate returns from its extensive property portfolio. Upon election, Francis asked the late Cardinal Pell to impose fiscal discipline on senior members. Yet he ultimately failed to back Pell, leaving these problems unaddressed.
'The 2025 conclave represents more than a leadership transition. It is yet again a referendum on the Church’s relationship with modernity itself.'
Angelo Becciu’s 2023 conviction for financial malfeasance exposed only one thread in what is surely a complex tapestry of questionable dealings. Will the new pope seek to illuminate these shadowy transactions or maintain institutional opacity? The cardinals should be asking themselves what they want the answer to that tough question to be.
Then there is the issue of Francis’s signature policy stances. These once aligned with elite opinion but now appear increasingly out of step with shifting global attitudes.
Francis’s approach to migration—emphasising dignity and openness—faces headwinds as governments across Europe, North America and Australia grapple with distinctions between refugees and economic migrants, cultural integration challenges, and sheer numerical pressures.
Similarly, his environmental advocacy, articulated in Laudato Si’ (2015) and Laudato Deum (2023), championed aggressive climate policies just as public discourse began pivoting from prevention toward adaptation and energy security.
In geopolitics, Francis’s sympathies for Palestinian aspirations contrasted with his ambivalence regarding Ukraine and his notable silence on Chinese human rights abuses. The next pope may want—or be forced—to recalibrate this strategic calculus.
The spectre of sexual abuse scandals also continues to haunt the Church globally. While many dioceses have implemented reforms, several jurisdictions have yet to face their reckoning. Questions linger about Francis’s own handling of certain cases. He was reluctant to act decisively against some accused individuals. Why? The next pope is bound to face questions about whether he has the courage to scrutinise his predecessor’s decisions and to institute more rigorous safeguards.
This conclave stands as one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Conventional wisdom suggests a pope from the Global South—perhaps from Africa or Asia—would provide welcome acknowledgement of the Church’s demographic shift.
Yet such a selection carries risks. An African pontiff might adopt moral positions that further alienate European constituencies. Moreover, candidates from developing regions may lack the administrative experience needed to navigate curial bureaucracy or the media savvy required to weather inevitable controversies.
Among potential successors, two names frequently emerge. Each comes with significant limitations. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Francis’s Secretary of State, could bring institutional knowledge to the papal office, but he lacks charismatic appeal. He also bears the taint of his role in Francis’s administration.
The Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle possesses exceptional personal magnetism—exactly what Francis showed that the role of pontiff now demands. Yet he has previously stumbled in administrative capacities. People doubt his suitability.
A diverse field of papabili lies beyond these frontrunners. They all bring unique strengths and weaknesses to the table. The cardinals must discern—quickly, for the world’s eyes are on them—which combination of attributes best serves the Church in this critical moment.
As they process into the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals face a profound choice. The 2025 conclave represents more than a leadership transition. It is, yet again, a referendum on the Church’s relationship with modernity itself.
Dr Miles Pattenden is Programme Director of the Europaeum at Oxford and lecturer in the Faculty of History.