The shooting down on 17 July of MH17, some 60km east of Donetsk and just south of the Russian border, by insurgent anti-aircraft missiles has now been swallowed up in the wider drama of the fierce civil war raging in Ukraine's pro-Russian eastern region.
The Kiev government, led by President Poroshenko, on 2 July ended a ten-day ceasefire, launching an all-out military offensive from Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv, some 40km from the Russian border. The offensive, involving shelling, tanks and aircraft, was against the outgunned insurgent-controlled cities of Slavyansk, Donetsk and Lugansk. Poroshenko said the rebels had been using the preceding ten-day ceasefire to regroup and restock with weapons from Russia. The offensive cannot have begun without tacit Western assent.
Rebel forces withdrew from Slavyansk (150km from the Russian border) on 5 July. Donetsk, the main rebel stronghold, 50km from the Russian border, is now almost encircled by the Ukrainian Army and may fall to them within hours or days. The city is being shelled in efforts to destroy insurgent headquarters. A badly-targeted shell has destroyed an apartment building, killing one man. If or when Donetsk falls, only Lugansk to the east, 20km from the Russian border, will remain in rebel hands.
Large numbers of civilian refugees have fled their homes in the expanding war zone (which includes the currently contested MH17 crash area). The UNHCR estimated on 25 July that as of 18 July, 230,000 people, mainly from Donetsk and Lugansk regions, had fled. Some 130,000 had crossed into Russia, and 100,000 fled towards other parts of Ukraine. The UNHCR spokesman said on 25 July that the number of refugees would be much higher now. Nearly a week on, by now it would be higher still, with large numbers fleeing from Donetsk.
On 24 July, the International Committee of the Red Cross proclaimed Ukraine to be in a state of civil war, appealing to all those involved to respect the humanitarian rules of war or face later indictment as war criminals. The ICRC may have been prompted to do this by reports of indiscriminate shelling by the Ukrainian Army of civilian sites in contested areas.
The burning question now is, what will Putin's Russia do? To date, its military and political assistance to the rebels was covert and deniable. But I cannot see how Putin could ignore the major challenge to Russia's national interests and prestige if the rebels are routed, amid scenes of