As the last minutes of the year 1999 ticked over, the world counted down to the beginning of a new millennium. In the middle of the Pacific Ocean, on the tiny sovereign nation of Kiribati, the clock struck midnight first, leaving the 20th century behind. It is now likely to become the first country to be wiped before the dawn of the next century.
But this tiny nation of 120,000 people isn't just at risk of physically disappearing because of rising sea levels. It's also at risk of disappearing politically and culturally. Kiribati's shakey future raises the unprecedented question of what could happen to its sovereignty if — or when — it physically disappears. Can a nation still exist without an actual country?
It's far from unprecedented for national borders to change. Just last century, Czechoslovakia and the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist — but their lands, carved out to other, new nations, still very much exist. The prospect of an entire country actually disappearing is a challenge the world has yet to deal with.
The 33 islands that make up Kiribati are located some 3000km south of Hawaii, making it one of the most isolated countries in the world. Scientists have essentially concluded that a sea level rise of three to six feet by 2100 will swallow its low-lying atolls. No reduction or even elimination of greenhouse gas emissions from today will prevent this from happening, scientists have concluded.
Kiribati's government has been planning for the worse-case scenario for several years, purchasing 7.7 square miles of land in Fiji — located around 2000km south-west — for its inhabitants for US$6.1 million. At the time, then-President Anote Tong said he hoped his people would never have to use the land, but 'if it became absolutely necessary, yes, we could do it'.
If the Kiribati people eventually move to Fiji, do they remain Kiribati? Or do they become new Fijians? Can an unofficial version of Kiribati exist within Fiji, or will that cause problems with the Fijian government?
Under the Montevideo Convention, a state can only exist if it meets four specific criteria: it must have a defined territory, a permanent population, and a government, which is also able to form relationships with other states. If Kiribati goes under water, it will lose at least one of these criteria, and possibly all four, unless changes are made to the convention, or unless Fiji relinquishes its sovereignty