According to Donald Trump, the world had a lucky escape last week. 'On Monday they [Iran] shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters,' he tweeted. 'We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike, I stopped it.' There is good reason to question virtually every aspect of this statement. Even the US military is unclear whether the drone was in Iranian airspace and the number of people affected is apparently drawn from thin air.
That said, Trump is clearly correct to highlight the precarious state of US-Iranian relations — a situation not helped by the fact that the Commander in Chief imposed a fresh wave of sanctions on Iranians on Monday (including 'Ayatollah Khomeini', Iran's previous Supreme Leader, who died 30 years ago).
As is widely known, but goes generally unmentioned in coverage of the unfolding crisis, the present escalation began when the US unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed with Iran and four other states to limit Iran's capacity to develop a military nuclear program. Under the JCPOA, with which Iran has complied, sanctions were to be progressively lifted. Instead, not only have US sanctions been reimposed, but two subsequent waves of sanctions have been added by Congress or the President.
These sanctions — imposed in breach of international law — have also been the basis for questionable actions against third parties. Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's Chief Financial Officer and daughter of its founder, currently languishes in Canadian custody awaiting extradition to the US for allegedly breaching them. The European Union, itself a party to the JCPOA along with three of its members and others have also been threatened with sanctions by recent US legislation if they comply with the UN-endorsed treaty.
Against this background, as I previously argued in the case of Kim Jong-un, the first lesson would seem to be that Iran would be foolish if it did return to talks with the US. There seems precious little to talk about — and absolutely no assurance that the US would keep its side of the deal even if talks did result in the new and better deal the US has claimed it always wanted.
The other key takeaway from this sorry saga is the questionable utility of sanctions as the catch-all