In coming days, a major US-Iran negotiation will conclude in success or failure. The two sides are attempting to meet an agreed end-of-March deadline for the completion of an outline agreement, which is scheduled to be finalised by seven-power international agreement in June.
This would allow Iran’s peaceful nuclear energy program to proceed within strict limits, in exchange for removing US-instigated international sanctions and unilateral US sanctions against Iran.
President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry want these negotiations to succeed, because they see the importance of restoring good long-term US relations with Iran, America’s only militarily effective and reliable ‘partner’ in the war against the Islamist terrorist organisation ISIL, in Syria, Iraq, and in other Middle East nations such as Libya.
Israel is the de facto third – but far from silent – party to these negotiations. Prime Minister Netanyahu is adamant that Iran must be prevented from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, which would neutralise Israel’s present nuclear weapons monopoly in the Middle East. Israel fears that if Iran could counter Israel’s nuclear deterrent, creating a regional ‘balance of terror’ of mutually assured destruction, the strategic map would change to Israel’s disadvantage.
Obama and Kerry are sympathetic to the Israeli case, but only to a point. They see the wider dilemma of a Middle East wracked by endless Sunni-Shia conflict, with Syria and Iraq the cockpits of deadly ISIL sectarian/ethnic attacks on Shia Muslims, Alawites, Kurds and Christians. ISIL is secretly financed by America’s ostensible allies – the wealthy Sunni Gulf states, including Qatar, and powerful elements in Saudi Arabia. The only effective military force against ISIL’s devastating advances last year through the Sunni region of Iraq is the battle-hardened and professional Iranian army, putting steel into resurgent local Shia Iraqi militia. Those forces are now said to be on the verge of retaking Tikrit, Saddam Hussein’s birthplace and a key Sunni city.
As long as the US and Iran remain opposed, the US is much less effective in working for peace and inter-communal harmony in Iraq and Syria.
Israel is indifferent to these wider concerns. Netanyahu stresses that the Iranian nuclear issue is ‘existential’ for Israel. The main arguments being put by Israel and its supporters are well summarised by Australian commentator Colin Rubinstein. These views would have wide support in Israel.
Hardline elements in Israel are not uncomfortable with the present tragic and bloody chaos in Syria – because it keeps the anti-Israel Assad