A potentially unstable coalition government with few detailed policies and weak administrative ability is now certain to emerge after East Timor’s first post-independence poll resoundingly rejected the party which had championed the country’s long struggle for independence.
Results from the 30 June poll indicate that the ruling Fretilin party saw its vote collapse to around 29 per cent. This is less than half the vote it received in the 2001 poll. The newly-formed CNRT party led Mr Xanana Gusmão, the hero of East Timor’s armed resistance struggle, came second with around 24 per cent of the vote. It is now vying with Fretilin for the allegiances of minor parties to secure a 51 per cent majority in parliament.
Whatever the composition of the coalition government, East Timor is now facing an uphill battle to secure its future and avoid a cycle of weak or failing governance. Dedication to creating jobs for a young and fast-growing population, and to improving administrative capacity so that the country can effectively spend its oil revenue, are the essential prerequisites for turning an unstable coalition into a strong and cohesive government.
The Gusmão-led CNRT has targeted the major weaknesses of the Fretilin government — its highly centralised and dysfunctional administration which made it unable to roll out programs to improve the lives of an impoverished and massively unemployed million-strong population. This poor performance was in spite of having the benefit of massive revenue from ConocoPhillips’ Timor Sea oil and gas project.
After 24 years of violence and Indonesian occupation, East Timor had until last year been a success story in the difficult business of post-conflict reconstruction. It was seen as a model for Iraq and Afghanistan.
But the country lapsed back into renewed conflict in May 2006 after the Fretilin government mismanaged a minor dispute within the armed forces. A dearth of job opportunities, reflecting four years of economic contraction in per capita terms, created the conditions for renewed conflict. Australian and other international peacekeepers, which had left the country prematurely in 2004, were forced to return in May last year when warring armed forces factions put the country on the brink of civil war.
Mr Alkatiri’s government succeeded in alienating the majority of the population with an authoritarian and undemocratic approach to government. He became infamous for making insensitive remarks, threatened to close down newspapers and tried to make defamation a criminal offence. His government was so ineffective that it was unable to