One would think after the disastrous interventions in Iraq and Libya that Australians would have learned to be just a little bit suspicious when the US Government suggests another Middle East war, or when a politician urges – as Bob Carr and Tony Blair have – that we have a 'moral obligation' to join in.
Traditional just war theory says that there are a number of ethical questions raised in going to war. Is it for a just cause? Is war a last resort? Is it declared by proper authority? Is the war proportional to the end and does it have a reasonable chance of success? All of these have some echo in international law and all are decidedly murky here.
We are not clear on the cause. The war in Iraq in which Australia is currently engaged is reasonably clear-cut. Troops are there at the Iraqi Government’s invitation to fight ISIS – a war of self-defence. Australia has, however, ceased to recognise the Syrian Government.
The US supports some of the rebel groups in Syria (some of whom are fighting each other, ISIS and/or the Syrian Government at the same time). Another US ally – Turkey – is bombing both ISIS and the Kurds (who are successfully fighting ISIS). Australia is opposed to ISIS, but so are the Syrian Government and Al Nusra (the local Al Qaeda branch). Australia is opposed to the Syrian Government, but so are ISIS and Al Nusra. Which, if any of these, will Australia be supporting and why?
Certainly, for all the rhetoric, there is to date no evidence that any of these factions are massing troops to invade Australia (or even the US). Given that we cannot even say for certain who the enemy is or why we will fight, the question of whether any war is truly a matter of last resort must be equally open.
The position is complicated further by the fact that the chaos in Iraq which bred ISIS – usually thought of as our main potential target – was undoubtedly caused by the defeat of Saddam Hussain. In addition, a recently declassified 2012 memorandum from the US Defence Intelligence Agency, declares that 'there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist principality in Eastern Syria…and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the [Syrian] opposition want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime…' This proved amazingly prescient in predicting both