Seldom has there been so much news in the Australian and western media about Burma. In relatively quick succession, we have witnessed arguably the world's most repressive regime after North Korea embark on a series of reforms that has altered its pariah status among western powers.
Burma's icon of democracy, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (pictured) has not only been released from house arrest but has been allowed to stand for parliament, seemingly without hindrance. Other political prisoners have been released although many complain of being followed by the secret police.
Ceasefire talks have begun with the various ethnic armies which have been waging war against the government for decades. This, in Suu Kyi's words, is the most intractable problem of all and has to be dealt with slowly.
I coordinate an Australian Catholic University program that offers tertiary education to Burmese refugees and migrants on the Thai-Burma border. When I visited in January I found that few of these students believed they would be returning home soon.
First, for the Royal Thai Government (RTG), the nine camps strewn along their border with Burma are no longer a priority. The real priorities are the economic aftermath of the floods, the insurgency in the south, the nation's deep political divisions, and the government's survival. The RTG realises that, even if it is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention, any hint of refoulement against the wishes of the refugees would be counterproductive and could cause more problems for the government.
Secondly, the Burmese government is quoted as saying that they are not ready for the refugees' return at present and have other higher priority issues to resolve first.
Practically, the refugees have little to return to since, in many cases, their villages were burned down, including schools and clinics (if they existed), and their crops destroyed. In addition, the vast areas of conflict are covered with landmines placed by the Burmese military and ethnic insurgents.
UNHCR is talking about 'return with reconciliation' but reconciliation means not just the cessation of violence but the creation of a new society where old animosities between all stakeholders and the government are replaced by less toxic relationships. For these new relationships to take root and generate the growth of a new society will