My optimism in previous essays on Ukraine ('Ukraine endgame' and 'Signs that East Ukraine has averted mass human tragedy') continues to be undermined by the remarkable capacity of all players in this tragic drama – the government in Kiev, the rebels in East Ukraine, and their respective backers in NATO and Moscow - to dig in stubbornly and refuse to compromise goals in this now very nasty civil war. Both Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin are hard men, heading military-political establishments that would see concession as signs of weakness.
On the ground, superior Ukrainian Army firepower continues to batter the shrinking rebel perimeters around the besieged cities of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Ukrainian army now holds most of the surrounding countryside. Tenuous access corridors to the nearby Russian border to the east (at another city confusingly called Donetsk) remain contested, including the MH17 crash-area.
Refugees trying to flee along those escape routes to Russia have been shelled and killed. Each side blames the other; truth is the first casualty in this increasingly bitter war. Allegations of atrocities abound. There have been a reliably estimated 3300 casualties so far. Over 2000 of these are civilians, with many women and children killed as rebel-held areas come under inaccurate national artillery fire. International agencies estimate 330000 refugees have fled their homes, about half to other parts of Ukraine and half to Russia. The latter may never return.Damage to the social fabric in East Ukraine has been profound. The former bi-cultural 'live and let live' spirit of Russian-speaking pro-Russian people and Ukrainian-speaking pro-nationalist people has been shattered by the cruelty of the war. There is deep anger against Kiev now in Donetsk and Lugansk.
Yesterday, a boastful Soviet-style military parade in Kiev to celebrate Ukraine's Independence Day was countered by a cruelly humiliating forced march of captured Ukrainian Army prisoners of war through Donetsk, recalling similar parades of captured German soldiers in WW2.
The only ray of hope on this bleak scene of locked-down embittered warfare is the patient, quiet diplomacy of German Premier Angela Merkel. She visited Kiev for talks with Poroshenko on Saturday. Major Western news agencies emphasised her public support for Poroshenko, and her public demands on Putin to stop smuggling men and arms across the border to help the rebels.
But, digging deeper into agency reports, I found she had strong messages for Kiev too: that it is now time for compromise on both sides when